Trump is back in Power. What now for development in Kenya?

Trump’s shocking political comeback has big implications for foreign aid and climate change. Last term, his efforts to slash overseas humanitarian and development spending were thwarted by a balanced US Congress. This time, with Republicans dominating the Whitehouse and the Senate, cuts could be pushed through.

Critically, Trump campaigned on a commitment to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement to enable Americans to “drill baby drill” for fossil fuels with the aim of cementing the US’s status as an energy superpower. That said, the domestic green transition has created thousands of new jobs in Republican areas and polls suggest that it has the support of workers and policy-makers across the spectrum, signalling that Trump may be best placed to build on transformations already underway. The communities and geographies most affected by climate change, notably Northern Kenya and the Horn of Africa, will suffer greatly in decades to come if emissions do indeed increase.

But perhaps, most worryingly, Trump’s attitude to NATO places global development ecosystems in a precarious position. He has already hinted at an ultimatum for Europe: increase your defence spending or else the US will withdraw support for Ukraine and no longer act as a defender against Russian incursions or attacks elsewhere in Europe. This may squeeze budgets, forcing European countries to divert their already-dwindling development assistance away from global destinations. However, Trump seems motivated to bring about some form of settlement, which while it may risk Ukrainian livelihoods, may make funds available for programmes elsewhere. It is wise for the Kenyan development ecosystem to de-risk its grants profile and look across Africa or to Asia for support, or perhaps use alternative modes of investment, such as blended finance. Nothing is certain